
+3%
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24h Vol
$58.8K
Liquidity
$63.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $178.6 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$178.6
Liquidity
$6.2K
This market asks whether OpenAI will still be private through December 31, 2027, or whether it will complete an initial public offering before that deadline. It is worth watching because OpenAI is one of the most closely followed private companies in the world, and an IPO would be a major milestone for its ownership structure and public market valuation. The market is currently pricing in a stronger chance of no IPO than IPO, but that can change if the company’s plans or filing timeline become clearer.
The question here is simple: will OpenAI have an IPO by the end of 2027, or will the market resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no listing happens by 11:59 PM ET on that date. If OpenAI does go public, resolution depends on its market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading, using the primary exchange’s official listing page or another reliable source if needed. The deadline matters because the market is not asking whether OpenAI ever IPOs, only whether it does so on or before the cutoff date.
OpenAI is a major private AI company, so there is real uncertainty about when or whether it will eventually list publicly. A company can remain private for years, but an IPO usually requires preparation, public filings, and a decision that the timing is right for the business and its backers. Traders are effectively disagreeing about how long OpenAI will stay private and whether 2027 is soon enough for a public offering.
The biggest price movers would be concrete signs that OpenAI is preparing for a listing, such as an S-1 filing, formal exchange-related steps, or public statements about an IPO timetable. On the other side, any indication that the company plans to stay private longer, restructure in a way that delays a public listing, or simply gives no sign of IPO readiness as 2027 approaches would tend to support the "No" side. Because the market resolves only on whether an IPO happens by the deadline, even strong business growth or a higher private valuation would matter less than actual listing steps.
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+3%
24h Vol
$58.8K
Liquidity
$63.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for official company announcements, SEC filing activity, and any exchange listing information tied to OpenAI’s first trading day. The rules say resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, with another reliable source only if the figure is not shown there, so the key thing is whether a formal public listing actually appears before the deadline. One ambiguity to keep in mind is that the market is about the timing of the IPO itself, not about later valuation performance, and if trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session or the next official closing price may be used for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $178.6 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
10%
No
90%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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