
+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$60.2K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $843.4 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Probability
43%
24h Volume
$843.4
Liquidity
$2.8K
This market is about whether OpenAI will debut as a company worth at least $1.5 trillion at the close of its first day of public trading. The date matters because the market only stays open until December 31, 2027, and it has a built-in fallback if no IPO happens by then.
The question is simple: on OpenAI’s IPO day, will its market capitalization at the closing price be $1.5T or higher? OpenAI is the artificial intelligence company behind products such as ChatGPT, and an IPO would mean its shares are publicly traded on a primary exchange for the first time. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”
The uncertainty is not just whether OpenAI goes public, but what the market will think the company is worth on day one if it does. That valuation would depend on the number of shares outstanding and the official closing price on the first trading day, so a highly anticipated debut could land above or below the $1.5T threshold. Readers care because the market is effectively asking how large OpenAI’s public-market debut could be, not just whether it happens.
Price can move on concrete developments that change the odds of an IPO happening before the deadline, or the likely size of the debut valuation. Examples include official filing milestones, announced listing plans, share count or pricing details in offering documents, and any clear indication from the company or exchange about timing. Because the resolution depends on the first-day closing price and share count, details that point to a larger or smaller offering can matter a lot.
The current market price implies roughly a 43% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+3%
24h Vol
$60.2K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are whether OpenAI files for and completes an IPO before the deadline, and what the primary exchange’s official listing page shows for the closing market cap on the first trading day. The rules say the market uses the official closing price, and if the exact market cap is not displayed, another reliable source may be used. If trading is interrupted, the market uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session, or the next official closing price if none is published that day.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $843.4 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 43%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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