
+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$59.1K
Liquidity
$74.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $650.7 in 24h volume, and $8.5K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$650.7
Liquidity
$8.5K
This market asks whether OpenAI’s stock market value will land in a specific range on the company’s first day as a public listing, assuming it goes public by the end of 2027. The question matters because IPO pricing can be volatile, and a debut valuation depends not just on investor demand but also on how many shares are outstanding and where the stock finishes its first trading session.
The event is tied to OpenAI’s IPO day, and the outcome is determined by the company’s market capitalization at the closing price on the first day of trading. The relevant bracket here is between $500 billion and $750 billion, with a separate “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome if the company has not gone public by then. If the value lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher bracket wins, and the resolution source is the primary exchange’s official listing page or another reliable source if needed.
OpenAI is a highly watched private company, so the market is really asking what public investors would assign it at listing, not just whether it can raise capital. There is uncertainty because IPO timing, share count, pricing, and first-day trading all interact, and any one of those can move the final market cap into or out of the target band. The market is also sensitive to the possibility that no IPO happens before the deadline, which would settle the contract on the alternate path.
Any confirmed step toward an IPO, such as a filing, listing announcement, or exchange timing update, would be the most direct catalyst because it reduces uncertainty around whether the deadline will be met. If OpenAI were to set a price range or expected share count that implies a valuation near this bracket, that would also matter because the contract resolves off the closing market cap on day one, not the headline pre-IPO valuation. On the other side, delays, changes in listing plans, or signals that a public offering is not imminent would push attention toward the “No IPO by December 31, 2027” outcome.
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+3%
24h Vol
$59.1K
Liquidity
$74.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the actual listing date, the exchange’s official closing price on OpenAI’s first trading day, and the reported number of shares outstanding used to calculate market cap. The rules say that if trading is interrupted or the session is abbreviated, the official closing price from that session counts; if no closing price is published, the next day with an official close becomes the first day for resolution purposes. Because the market depends on an official exchange listing page and a precise cutoff at December 31, 2027, the main ambiguity to verify is whether OpenAI has actually listed and whether the first official close is available by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $650.7 in 24h volume, and $8.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
4.2%
No
95.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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