Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $24K in liquidity.

Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Aug 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.