Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rafael Fiziev be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $486.6 in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$486.6
This market asks whether Rafael Fiziev will hold the UFC lightweight title at the end of 2026. It is a very specific question about the official champion listed by the UFC, not about rankings, contender status, or interim belts.
The title names Rafael Fiziev, a UFC lightweight fighter, and asks whether he will be the official UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves using the UFC’s official division champion listing, and only a recognized UFC lightweight champion counts. If the belt is vacant at the check time, or there is no official champion for the division, the market resolves to "Other" rather than to a fighter name.
The uncertainty here is whether Fiziev can reach the top of one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions by the resolution date. Lightweight is a major men’s division, so the answer depends on future fight bookings, injuries, title defenses, and whether Fiziev earns and wins a championship opportunity before the cutoff. The market is pricing disagreement over how realistic that championship path is over the next year and a half.
Price can move if Fiziev is booked into high-stakes lightweight bouts, especially against top-ranked opponents or in an interim-title or undisputed title fight. It can also shift if the current champion changes through a title fight, injury, vacancy, retirement, or weight-class move that reshapes the belt picture. Because the settlement is tied to the official UFC champion list, any confirmed title change on UFC’s own athlete pages matters more than speculation or rankings talk.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market resolves, readers should check the UFC’s official lightweight division champion listing, since that is the source of truth. The key details are the exact check time, whether the belt is undisputed or interim, and whether the division is vacant at the deadline, because those conditions determine whether the outcome is "Yes," "No," or "Other." If there is any late bout, injury, or vacated-title situation near the end of 2026, the official UFC page is the place to verify the final settlement status.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rafael Fiziev be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $486.6 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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