Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rauw Alejandro perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $398.4 in 24h volume, and $44.7 in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$398.4
Liquidity
$44.7
This market asks whether Rauw Alejandro will be part of the first FIFA World Cup Final halftime show at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19, 2026. It is worth watching because the event is officially confirmed, but the exact performer lineup is still the key uncertainty for this specific artist. The market is also settling on a very precise standard: a live in-person appearance during the halftime show counts, even if it is only a guest appearance.
The event in question is the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, which FIFA has said will take place during the final on July 19, 2026 and will be produced by Global Citizen. The named person is Puerto Rican singer Rauw Alejandro, and the market resolves Yes only if he appears live at that halftime show in person. If the show is cancelled, postponed, or pushed beyond September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
There is uncertainty because FIFA has confirmed the halftime show itself, but that does not tell readers whether Rauw Alejandro will actually be booked for it. Halftime shows at major sporting events often involve a small, curated lineup, so even popular artists can be included, excluded, or only appear briefly as guests. The market is effectively pricing the gap between a confirmed stage and an unconfirmed performer roster.
The biggest price moves would likely come from official performer announcements tied to the World Cup final or from credible reporting that specifically names Rauw Alejandro. Any footage, rehearsal coverage, or sponsor-linked promotion that clearly places him in the halftime show would matter because the resolution source can use show footage as well as a consensus of credible reporting. On the other side, a published lineup that omits him, or an announcement that the halftime show format changes, would push expectations away from a Yes outcome.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the official halftime-show billing, any FIFA or Global Citizen lineup announcement, and the final broadcast itself on July 19, 2026. The important settlement detail is that a qualifying performance can be a full set or even a brief live guest appearance, so the question is not whether he headlines, but whether he appears at all. One ambiguity to keep in mind is that the market can still resolve from credible reporting if the footage is unclear, so the strongest evidence will be official show material or clear on-camera appearance.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rauw Alejandro perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $398.4 in 24h volume, and $44.7 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
5.4%
No
94.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 19, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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