Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rihanna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, and $476.3 in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$476.3
This market asks whether Rihanna will perform at the first FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. It is worth watching because the event is tied to one of the biggest stages in global sports, and the market depends on a very specific live appearance rather than general involvement with the show.
The question is straightforward: will Rihanna appear live and in person during the halftime show at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? FIFA has already confirmed that the World Cup Final will feature the first halftime show, and the market’s rule says a qualifying appearance can be any live presence during the show, including a guest appearance, even if she does not sing a full set. If the event is canceled, postponed, or pushed beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
This market exists because the title names a specific artist, but the official event details only confirm that there will be a halftime show produced by Global Citizen. That leaves room for uncertainty about who will actually perform, whether the named performer appears at all, and whether any appearance will be onstage, in person, and during the halftime segment itself. Readers are essentially weighing the difference between a rumored or expected booking and an appearance that clearly satisfies the market’s settlement rules.
The biggest price moves will come from official FIFA, Global Citizen, or performer-related announcements that clarify the halftime lineup. A confirmed trailer, promotional poster, rehearsal notice, or credible footage of Rihanna arriving, rehearsing, or appearing on the broadcast would all matter because the rule focuses on live in-person performance. On the other side, a lineup reveal that excludes her, or any change to the final or the halftime show schedule, would push the market toward No.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key details to verify are whether the halftime show actually happens on July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium, and whether Rihanna appears live in person during that show. Resolution will rely on footage from the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, with consensus credible reporting also allowed, so the most important ambiguity is whether any appearance is actually onstage and part of the halftime performance. Readers should also note the deadline: if the event is delayed beyond September 30, 2026, the market resolves No even if a performance is promised later.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rihanna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, and $476.3 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
4.1%
No
96%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 19, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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