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Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
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6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $303.4K in 24h volume, and $20.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$303.4K
Liquidity
$20.2K
This market asks whether Ronaldo Caiado will end up with the second-highest vote total in Brazil’s first-round presidential election on October 4, 2026. Caiado is a well-known Brazilian politician, and finishing second in the first round would mean he outperforms the rest of the field except the top vote-getter. The answer depends on the official count of valid votes, not on polling headlines or speculation.
The event is the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, with the market set to resolve on which named candidate finishes second by valid votes. If candidates are tied, the market uses the rule in the description: ties are broken alphabetically by last name, and the second-place finisher under that ranking is the winner for resolution purposes. If the official result is still not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other," and if there is any ambiguity the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is the final source of truth.
Brazil’s presidential race can be crowded, and first-round vote shares often get split among several major contenders. That makes second place in the initial count a separate question from who ultimately wins the presidency, especially in a system where no candidate may clear the threshold needed to avoid a runoff. People following this market are effectively debating whether Caiado can outperform other major names in the first-round ranking.
Price movement will usually come from official campaign developments that affect Caiado’s standing relative to other candidates: announcements about alliances, endorsements, candidacies, or withdrawals, as well as changes in debate performance or polling that alter expectations about his first-round vote share. Because the market is about second place specifically, developments that strengthen one rival more than another can matter as much as Caiado’s own campaign momentum. Any official candidate list, ballot qualification issue, or shift in the field before the election could also change how likely it looks that Caiado finishes second.
Related markets
+91.9%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should track the official candidate lineup, the election date, and the first-round vote count as published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The key resolution detail is that this market is based on valid votes in the first round, with alphabetical tiebreaking if needed, so the final ranking matters more than broader political narratives. Because the market can fall back to "Other" if the result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, it is worth checking whether the TSE result is final and unambiguous before assuming the market has settled.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $303.4K in 24h volume, and $20.2K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
1.1%
No
98.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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