culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $793.1 in 24h volume, and $17.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$793.1
Liquidity
$17.1K
This market asks whether Sabrina Carpenter will end 2026 as Spotify’s most streamed artist. It is tied to Spotify’s annual top-artist announcement, which usually arrives as part of Wrapped and becomes the official source for settling the contract.
The question is very specific: when Spotify publishes its 2026 year-end rankings, will the artist named at the top be Sabrina Carpenter? Sabrina Carpenter is a major pop artist, so the market is really about whether her streaming performance can outpace every other artist on the platform over the full calendar year. If Spotify has not named a top artist for 2026 by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No under the stated rules.
Spotify’s annual Wrapped-style rankings are one of the clearest public snapshots of music popularity, but the winner is not known in advance and can shift with album releases, hit singles, touring momentum, and global listening habits. Readers following this market are essentially watching whether Sabrina Carpenter can sustain enough streaming volume across the year to finish above the rest of the field, which is why the outcome remains uncertain despite her high profile.
Official Spotify announcements are the only source that can ultimately settle the market, so any confirmed Wrapped release naming the 2026 top artist would be decisive. Before then, the biggest drivers are likely to be Sabrina Carpenter’s own release cycle, major competing pop stars’ albums or viral catalog boosts, and whether Spotify’s year-end reporting window reflects a broad enough listening lead for one artist to separate from the pack. Because the contract is about the single artist Spotify lists as No. 1, even a small change in the leaderboard narrative can matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.3%
24h Vol
$153.4K
Liquidity
$148.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe key item to verify is the exact wording of Spotify’s official 2026 year-end artist ranking, since the market resolves to the name Spotify lists as top artist rather than to any third-party chart or estimate. The deadline clause also matters: if Spotify has not published the result by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles No. The main ambiguity risk is whether Spotify changes how it labels its year-end rankings, so the safest source of truth is the official Spotify Wrapped or newsroom announcement referenced in the market description.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $793.1 in 24h volume, and $17.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026. If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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