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Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
24h Vol
$669.3K
Liquidity
$15.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $169.1K in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$169.1K
Liquidity
$0
This market is about whether the new opening weekend for "Scary Movie" will clear $52 million in domestic box office gross. It is tied to a very specific measurement window: the 3-day weekend of June 5 to June 7, with final figures taken from The Numbers after they are no longer estimates.
The question is simple: will "Scary Movie" finish its opening weekend at $52 million or more in domestic box office receipts? Resolution is based on the "Weekend Box Office Performance" figures on The Numbers movie page, and the market uses the final 3-day weekend total rather than later revised or studio-estimate numbers. If the reported total lands exactly between bracketed ranges, the higher bracket is used, and if the data is still ambiguous, the market waits until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo confirm final figures.
Box office forecasts can shift quickly around release day because audience turnout, preview screenings, and weekday-to-weekend momentum all affect the final opening number. A $52 million threshold is meaningful because it sits near the upper end of what a comedy or horror-comedy opening would need to hit to look like a strong launch, so people disagree on whether the movie can get there. The live market is pricing that disagreement, especially with the result depending on a narrow domestic weekend window rather than the full run.
Anything that changes expectations for the June 5 to June 7 total can move this market, especially official opening figures, final weekend tallies, or confirmation that Thursday previews are being included in the 3-day number. If The Numbers posts a stronger-than-expected final weekend total, the Yes side would tend to strengthen; if final reporting settles below $52 million, the No side would gain. Price can also react if there is uncertainty about whether posted figures are still estimates or have been finalized by the resolution sources.
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24h Vol
$669.3K
Liquidity
$15.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the exact weekend total on The Numbers and then verify that it has been finalized, since the market explicitly waits for non-estimate figures if there is any ambiguity. Box Office Mojo is the backup confirmation source, and the fallback deadline is June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no final data is available sooner. The key thing to check is not just the headline gross, but that it matches the market’s specific 3-day domestic weekend rule for June 5 through June 7.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $169.1K in 24h volume.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
100%
No
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to how much "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 5 - June 7) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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