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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $48K in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$48K
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market asks whether Scotiabank will be formally deemed to have failed by June 30, 2026. It is a straightforward credit and supervision question with a narrow resolution window, so the key issue is whether any major bank-resolution event, insolvency finding, or forced wind-down happens before the deadline.
The named institution is Scotiabank, the common name for The Bank of Nova Scotia, one of Canada’s major banking groups. Under the market rules, a “Yes” requires an official failure-type event during the period from market creation through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, not just ordinary stress, rumor, or a temporary market setback. The listed outcomes include a regulator declaring insolvency or non-viability, a court-ordered liquidation or statutory resolution, a forced transfer to a bridge bank or similar authority, or an acknowledged default that triggers formal regulatory or resolution action.
This market centers on the small but serious possibility of a large bank entering a formal resolution process, which would be a major event for depositors, creditors, and regulators. Scotiabank matters because it is a systemically important financial institution, so even a remote failure scenario draws attention to capital strength, asset quality, liquidity, and the role of Canadian and cross-border regulators. The disagreement being priced is not about routine volatility; it is about whether any official failure trigger could occur within the deadline.
Price can move if there is a public regulator action, a court filing, a government resolution announcement, or a formal statement about insolvency, non-viability, or wind-down. Credit events, missed debt payments, or signs that a resolution authority is preparing extraordinary intervention would also matter if they are officially acknowledged under the market’s rules. On the other hand, routine earnings reports, share-price moves, or general banking-sector stress would usually matter only indirectly unless they point to an actual resolution pathway.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market