
+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$60.2K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
12%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks whether the S&P 500 index will trade down to $6,700 or lower at any point during June 2026, using intraday data rather than a month-end close. Because it resolves off a specific low print on a 1-minute candle, even a brief dip during regular trading hours would matter.
The subject is the S&P 500, shown here as SPX, the headline U.S. stock index that tracks 500 large companies. The market will be judged over the June 2026 trading window and resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle for ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance shows a final Low at or below 6,700 before the final day of trading in June closes. If that level is never touched during regular trading hours, the outcome is No.
The key uncertainty is whether the index will experience a drawdown large enough to revisit 6,700 within the month. That threshold is close enough to be plausible in a volatile equity market, but far enough away that it depends on how stocks respond to inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, corporate earnings, and broader risk sentiment during June. Readers care because the market is not asking where the S&P 500 finishes the month; it is pricing the chance of a specific downside test along the way.
Movements in the market price will usually reflect changes in expectations for whether the S&P 500 can avoid a 6,700 intraday low before June ends. Important catalysts would include major economic releases, Federal Reserve announcements or commentary, sharp moves in large-cap tech and other index heavyweights, and broad selloffs that pull the whole index lower during regular trading hours. If the index briefly gets close to the level on a volatile day, that can matter more here than a steady month-end drift because the rule keys off the lowest 1-minute candle.
The current market price implies roughly a 12% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+3%
24h Vol
$60.2K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is the resolution rule: it uses Yahoo Finance 1-minute data for ^GSPC, not a daily close, and only counts regular trading hours on the primary exchange. The final deadline is the close of the last trading day in June 2026, so late-month trading and any intraday flash move could decide the market. Readers should also note that holidays, maintenance breaks, and off-hours pricing do not count, and that the exact low recorded in the 1-minute candle is what matters if the index touches 6,700 or below.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
12%
No
88%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 12%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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