
+2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
24h Vol
$41.5K
Liquidity
$51.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $16K in 24h volume, and $228 in liquidity.
Probability
36%
24h Volume
$16K
Liquidity
$228
This market is asking whether Stripe’s private-market valuation will reach at least $160 billion at any point before the end of June 30, 2026. It is centered on a specific valuation measure, not a general sense of how the company is doing, so the key question is whether Nasdaq Private Market’s reported Stripe price ever prints at or above that level within the resolution window.
Stripe is a major private payments company, and this market resolves on whether its private valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, hits or exceeds $160 billion on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026. NPM prices are published for trading days only and appear once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day, so the market is tied to those official updates rather than intraday rumors. If Stripe were to go public before the deadline, the resolution rules also allow the market to use the valuation implied by the IPO or direct listing price and, after listing, the public market capitalization.
Stripe is a closely watched private company, and its valuation can move around based on private-market demand, fundraising terms, and broader sentiment toward large fintech names. The disagreement behind this market is whether the NPM-reported valuation will ever get back to or above $160 billion before the cutoff, which is a concrete threshold rather than a vague growth story. The current market pricing also suggests traders see meaningful uncertainty about whether that level will be reached in time.
The biggest price moves would come from a new NPM Price update showing Stripe at or above $160 billion, or from a sequence of updates that push the reported valuation closer to or farther from the threshold. Any IPO or direct-listing process would matter as well, because the rules say the official offering price and later public market capitalization can be used if Stripe lists before the deadline. Changes in broader private-market conditions for late-stage tech and payments companies could also affect expectations, but only the official valuation measures described in the rules will determine the outcome.
Related markets

+2%
24h Vol
$41.5K
Liquidity
$51.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 36% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the NPM Price publication schedule carefully, since the data is only published for trading days and arrives the following day at 1:00 PM ET. The key source of truth is the Nasdaq Private Market valuation series for Stripe, along with any IPO or direct-listing filings if the company goes public before June 30, 2026. The market can stay open past the main deadline if NPM has not yet published all relevant business dates, and the exact fallback timing is spelled out in the rules through July 4, 2026, so the resolution date may be later than the event date itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $16K in 24h volume, and $228 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
36%
No
64%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 36%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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