Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $793.5K in 24h volume, and $9M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$793.5K
Liquidity
$9M
This market asks a straightforward question: will Sweden end up as the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? It is a long-horizon sports market tied to one of soccer’s biggest tournaments, so the main issue is whether Sweden can qualify, advance through the knockout rounds, and ultimately lift the trophy. Because the event is still far from its final stages, the market can move quickly as the tournament unfolds or as Sweden is eliminated.
The outcome depends on which national team is officially recognized by FIFA as the 2026 World Cup champion. Sweden must not only reach the tournament but also survive the group stage and each knockout round to keep a “Yes” outcome alive. The market is scheduled to close on July 20, 2026, and if the tournament is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM, it resolves to “Other” instead of “Yes” or “No”.
Sweden is a historic national team, but winning the World Cup is a very difficult path because the field includes the strongest teams in international soccer and the knockout format leaves little room for error. That creates uncertainty about qualification, squad quality, tournament draw, and whether Sweden can string together multiple wins against top opponents. Market participants are essentially disagreeing about whether Sweden has any realistic championship path at all, or whether elimination will come long before the final.
The biggest price moves will come from Sweden’s qualification status, official tournament draw, squad announcements, injuries, and lineup changes ahead of the World Cup. During the tournament, every Sweden match matters: a loss can end the “Yes” case immediately if it eliminates the team under FIFA rules, while wins can keep the market alive deeper into the bracket. Any official FIFA ruling, schedule change, or result that makes Sweden unable to win the title will push the market toward “No” under the settlement rules.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official FIFA tournament bracket, Sweden’s path through qualifiers and the finals, and the exact knockout-stage elimination rules, since the market resolves to “No” as soon as Sweden can no longer win under FIFA rules. The primary source of truth is FIFA, though credible consensus reporting may also matter if the outcome is unclear. The main ambiguity to verify is whether the tournament finishes on time or is canceled, because that determines whether the market resolves to “Other” rather than a team result.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $793.5K in 24h volume, and $9M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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