Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $7.5K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.