Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $6.5K in 24h volume, and $61.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$6.5K
Liquidity
$61.2K
This market asks whether the Baltimore Orioles will finish the 2026 MLB season as World Series champions. It is tied to one of baseball’s clearest final outcomes: only the team that wins the Fall Classic resolves the market to Yes, while every other result means No unless the season itself ends without a declared winner.
The question is straightforward: will Baltimore win the 2026 World Series, the championship series that ends Major League Baseball’s postseason? The Orioles are the named team, and the market is scheduled to stay open until late October 2026 unless MLB’s season is delayed, canceled, or otherwise fails to produce a champion by the resolution deadline. According to the rules, the market also resolves No as soon as Baltimore is mathematically or officially eliminated from winning the title.
Baseball champions are determined through a long postseason bracket, so even strong regular-season teams still face a lot of uncertainty when October arrives. For Baltimore, the key question is whether the club can build a roster and stay healthy enough to survive multiple playoff rounds against other contenders. The market is pricing disagreement about how likely the Orioles are to make that entire path work in one season.
This market can move quickly with Orioles roster news, especially injuries to core pitchers or everyday hitters, unexpected trades, or a change in the team’s projected playoff strength. Late-season standings matter as well, because Baltimore’s chances improve or weaken depending on whether it reaches the postseason, secures a better seed, or slips into a tougher matchup path. In October, actual playoff results, pitching rotation usage, and elimination status are the clearest events that can force a Yes or No outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Readers should watch the official MLB postseason bracket, Baltimore’s clinch or elimination status, and the league’s final championship announcement, since those are the settlement anchors named in the rules. The most important ambiguity risk is not who looks good on paper, but whether MLB completes the 2026 season and declares a winner before the deadline; if not, the market goes to Other. Because the rules allow official MLB information as the primary source and credible reporting as backup, any unusual season delay or scheduling change should be checked against league announcements before assuming settlement will follow a normal October timeline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $6.5K in 24h volume, and $61.2K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
1.4%
No
98.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
0%
7/6/2026
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