
-6.1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$38.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 38%, $1K in 24h volume, and $110.4 in liquidity.
Probability
38%
24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$110.4
This market asks whether the Bank of Korea will make an unusually large rate cut at its August 2026 policy meeting, meaning a reduction of 50 basis points or more in the base rate. It is worth watching because central-bank moves of that size tend to signal a stronger response to economic conditions than a routine quarter-point adjustment.
The event is the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board, scheduled for August 27, 2026 on the bank’s official calendar. The question is simple: after that meeting, will the Bank of Korea announce a base-rate cut of at least 50 basis points compared with the level before the meeting? The market resolves from the official meeting statement or release, and if the policy rate is presented as a band, the upper bound is the reference point.
There is uncertainty because central banks do not always telegraph the size of their next move, and the Bank of Korea can choose from different cut sizes depending on inflation, growth, and financial conditions. A 50 bps-or-more cut would be a stronger signal than a smaller move, so the market is really pricing disagreement over how aggressive policymakers will be at that meeting.
The biggest price movers will be any official Bank of Korea language ahead of the meeting, especially hints about easing, growth risks, or the need for faster policy support. In the days before August 27, 2026, any change in the expected size of the move will matter more than the direction itself, because the market is specifically about whether the cut reaches 50 bps or more. The final statement, press release, and the announced rate level are the deciding inputs.
The current market price implies roughly a 38% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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-6.1%
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$38.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should check the Bank of Korea’s official Monetary Policy Board statement for the August 2026 meeting, because that is the source of truth for resolution. The key detail is the change in the base rate relative to the level before the meeting, with the market treating the upper bound as the relevant number if a range is used. If the announced change does not match the displayed answer choices exactly, the market rules say it will be rounded according to the stated basis-point guidelines, so the wording of the release matters.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 38%, $1K in 24h volume, and $110.4 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
38%
No
62%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Aug 26, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 38%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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