
+0.1%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
24h Vol
$669.8K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $348,000 and $351,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $188 in 24h volume, and $113.9 in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$188
Liquidity
$113.9
This market asks whether Chicago’s median home value will land in a very narrow band on June 30, 2026. It is tied to a specific official-style pricing measure for the city, so the key question is not whether Chicago housing is expensive in general, but whether the published figure ends up inside the $348,000 to $351,000 range.
The market resolves on the median home value for all property types in Chicago as of June 30, 2026. Resolution uses the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845), where the published price index per square foot is multiplied by 1,500 square feet, described here as the median home size in Chicago. If the final reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market rules say it resolves to the higher range bracket; if June 30 data is not published by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the latest available published data will be used instead.
Chicago home values move with broader housing-market forces such as inventory, mortgage rates, seasonality, and local demand, but this market is asking about one very precise monthly print rather than a broad trend. The uncertainty comes from whether the indexed value, after being converted into a dollar amount, will fall inside a tight band or just outside it. Readers care because small changes in the underlying price-per-square-foot measure can be enough to move the final settlement from one bracket to another.
The most direct driver is the next Parcl Labs Chicago index release itself, since the settlement is based on that specific published figure. A stronger or weaker-than-expected monthly reading in Chicago’s price-per-square-foot data could push the calculated home value above or below the target band, especially because the range is only $3,000 wide. Any shift in the city’s housing conditions that changes the index at the end of June—such as tighter supply, softer demand, or a seasonal price move—would matter to this market only insofar as it affects that published Parcl number.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$669.8K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the June 30 deadline, the main thing to verify is the exact Parcl Labs release for Chicago, IL and the price index value it publishes for that date. Because the market resolves by multiplying the index’s price-per-square-foot figure by 1,500, the important detail is not just the index direction but the final converted dollar amount and whether it lands inside the bracket. Readers should also note the fallback rule: if June 30 data is delayed past July 10, 2026, the latest published data becomes the source of truth, and boundary cases go to the higher bracket.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $348,000 and $351,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $188 in 24h volume, and $113.9 in liquidity.
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Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/46)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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