
+0.1%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
24h Vol
$669.8K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $70.3 in 24h volume, and $94.6 in liquidity.
Probability
11%
24h Volume
$70.3
Liquidity
$94.6
This market asks whether Miami’s median home value will come in below $1,072,000 on June 30, 2026. It is tied to a specific official housing index rather than a generic headline estimate, so the key question is how Parcl Labs’ Miami City data translates into a settlement value at month-end.
The event being measured is the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida, using the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City on June 30, 2026. The market settles by taking Parcl’s published price-per-square-foot figure and multiplying it by 2,100, which the market rules say is Miami’s median square footage. If the resulting value lands exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket is used, and if June 30 data is not released by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market falls back to the most recently published data.
Miami housing prices can move enough over a month that a threshold like $1,072,000 is not automatic, especially when the final settlement depends on a specific index methodology rather than a broad citywide headline. People watching this market are really comparing where the Parcl Labs index is likely to land against that cut-off, which makes the exact index print and bracket treatment important. The uncertainty is not just about whether Miami housing is expensive, but whether the official June 30 measure clears this particular line.
The most direct price mover is any change in expectations for the Parcl Labs Miami City index ahead of the June 30 publication, since the settlement value is derived from that number alone. Market participants may react to housing seasonality, changes in local listing and closing activity, or any shift that appears likely to affect the index print near the deadline. Because the rule uses the published price per square foot times 2,100, even a modest change in the index can matter if the result is near the threshold.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$669.8K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 11% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the most important item to check is the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index release for Miami City dated June 30, 2026, since that is the official source of truth. Readers should also verify whether Parcl publishes the June 30 value on time, because the fallback rule kicks in if no June 30 data appears by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Finally, watch the exact bracket mapping: if the calculated value lands between two ranges, the higher bracket wins, which can matter if the settlement is close to $1,072,000.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $70.3 in 24h volume, and $94.6 in liquidity.
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Yes
10.5%
No
89.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/39)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 11%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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