
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.2K
Liquidity
$54.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $566,000 and $570,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $26.9 in 24h volume, and $338.5 in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$26.9
Liquidity
$338.5
This market asks where the median home value in the Washington, D.C. metro area will land on June 30, 2026, with a narrow band centered on the $566,000 to $570,000 range. Because it uses a specific index methodology and a fixed settlement date, the key question is not just whether prices are rising or falling, but whether the published figure lands inside that exact bracket.
The event is tied to the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area, identified in the rules as Parcl_ID: 2900475. Resolution will use the official June 30, 2026 publication, and the market will pay out if the calculated settlement value for the metro’s median home value falls between $566,000 and $570,000 inclusive, with ties going to the higher bracket if the published value sits exactly on a boundary. The settlement value is derived by multiplying Parcl’s reported price-per-square-foot index by 1,800 square feet, which the rules say is the metro area’s median home size.
The Washington, D.C. metro housing market is large enough that small changes in the index can move the final figure across a relatively tight range. That makes this a precise test of where the market is likely to stand on a single date, rather than a broad question about whether home prices are generally high or low. The live market currently leans toward the home-value range being outside this bracket, but the event can still turn on a modest index change close to the settlement date.
The most direct price drivers are the Parcl Labs index releases themselves, especially any June 30 publication and any update before the July 10 fallback deadline. Because settlement depends on a specific price-per-square-foot figure multiplied by 1,800, even a small shift in the underlying index can move the computed home value into or out of the target band. Traders will also react to whether Parcl publishes the June 30 data on time or relies on the most recently published data instead, since the rules allow that backup resolution path.
Related markets

-0.2%
24h Vol
$153.2K
Liquidity
$54.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index page for Washington, D.C. Metro and confirm the exact June 30, 2026 value, since that is the source of truth for settlement. It is also important to watch the fallback clause: if no June 30 data is released by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves using the most recently published data instead. The main ambiguity risk is not the headline home-value estimate itself, but whether the published index value, the 1,800-square-foot multiplier, and the bracketed settlement rule are all applied exactly as written.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $566,000 and $570,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $26.9 in 24h volume, and $338.5 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
6%
No
94%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/45) ---
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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