Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,190,000 and $1,199,000 on June 30?

What this market is about

Resolution will come from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area, identified as Parcl_ID: 2900078. Parcl publishes the index as a price-per-square-foot figure, and this market converts that figure into a home value by multiplying it by 1,900 square feet, which the rules say is the median home size in the metro area. The market settles on the June 30, 2026 reading; if that exact date is not published by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the most recently published data is used instead.

Why the market exists

Los Angeles housing values are famously high and can shift meaningfully from month to month, but this market is narrower than a simple “up or down” question because it targets one specific value range. That creates uncertainty around where the index will print on the cutoff date and whether it will fall just above or just below the band. Readers are effectively watching disagreement over how expensive the metro area will be at that moment, as measured by Parcl’s methodology.

What can move the price

The main drivers are changes in Parcl Labs’ Los Angeles Metro price index as June 30 approaches, since the final settlement is tied directly to that published figure. A stronger-than-expected index reading would push the implied home value higher and could move the market away from the target band, while a softer reading would do the opposite. Because the range is so specific, even a modest change in the index, or a revision in the published June 30 data, could matter.

How to read the current probability