
-3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$146.6K
Liquidity
$45.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,199,000 and $1,208,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $41.3 in 24h volume, and $236.9 in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$41.3
Liquidity
$236.9
This market asks a narrow but very concrete question about Los Angeles housing: where the metro-area median home value will land on June 30, 2026, and whether it falls inside a specific $9,000 band. Because the resolution uses a published index from Parcl Labs rather than a headline estimate, readers should pay attention to the exact methodology and release timing, not just broad housing chatter.
The contract resolves to “Yes” if the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area is between $1,199,000 and $1,208,000 on June 30, 2026. The market uses Parcl Labs Sales Price Index data for Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078), and the published price index value is multiplied by 1,900 square feet, which the rules say is the median home size in the area. If the reported value lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins, and if June 30 data is not published by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market falls back to the most recently published data.
Los Angeles home prices are large enough that even modest moves in the underlying index can shift the result from one bracket to another. The uncertainty here is not about whether housing is expensive in general, but about the exact measured value on a specific date under a specific index methodology. That makes the market sensitive to the published Parcl Labs figure, any late-month move in the index, and the rule for how missing June 30 data is handled.
Any new Parcl Labs release affecting the Los Angeles Metro Sales Price Index can change how likely the final number is to fall inside this band. Because the contract is tied to a June 30 publication and a formula based on price per square foot times 1,900, changes in the index level, revisions to the published series, or the absence of a June 30 release can all matter. The small one-day move and tight bid-ask spread suggest the market is watching the final few published readings closely, especially as the end date approaches.
Related markets

-3%
24h Vol
$146.6K
Liquidity
$45.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key item to verify is the official Parcl Labs publication for Los Angeles Metro on June 30, 2026, since that is the source of truth for settlement. Readers should also check whether the June 30 data is actually posted by the July 10 fallback deadline, because if it is missing the market resolves using the most recent available data instead. The exact bracket rule matters too: if the final calculated value sits right on a boundary, the higher bracket is used, which can change the outcome for values near $1,199,000 or $1,208,000.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,199,000 and $1,208,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $41.3 in 24h volume, and $236.9 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
6%
No
94%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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