Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be less than $1,174,000 on June 30?

What this market is about

The outcome depends on the published median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026. Parcl Labs will resolve the market using its Sales Price Index for Parcl_ID: 2900336, then multiply the published price-per-square-foot figure by 1,700 square feet, which the rules say is the median home size in the metro area. If the final value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher range bracket wins.

Why the market exists

San Francisco housing prices are often volatile enough that a specific threshold like $1,174,000 can be uncertain at the time of resolution. Readers may care because the number sits near the line between a “Yes” and “No” outcome, and because the metro’s home-value trends are often used as a barometer for broader Bay Area housing conditions. The market is pricing a disagreement over whether the June 30 Parcl Labs figure will land under that cutoff or slightly above it.

What can move the price

The biggest price driver will be the June 30 Parcl Labs publication itself, especially the underlying sales price index and the implied per-square-foot valuation used in the settlement formula. Any movement in San Francisco metro home prices between now and that release, or a revised reading if Parcl updates its data, can shift expectations toward or away from the threshold. Because the contract resolves from one specific index-based calculation, even a modest change in the published figure could decide the outcome.

How to read the current probability