Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $47.4K in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$47.4K
This market asks whether the Seattle Mariners will finish the 2026 MLB season by winning the World Series. It is a straightforward championship question, but in baseball the answer depends on a long regular season, playoff seeding, and surviving multiple postseason series.
The outcome is tied to the official winner of the 2026 World Series, with the market resolving to Yes only if the Mariners are the club that wins it. If Seattle is eliminated at any point under MLB rules, this market resolves to No, even if the team had a strong regular season before that point. If the 2026 season is canceled, delayed past December 31, 2026 ET, or ends without a declared champion, the market resolves to Other instead of Yes or No.
The Mariners are a major-league team with a long season in front of them, and the World Series is the hardest title to win in North American pro baseball. That creates uncertainty around whether Seattle can both make the playoffs and then win a short, high-variance postseason bracket. Readers following this market are essentially tracking whether the Mariners can turn a full season of results into a championship before the end-of-October resolution date.
The biggest price movers are ordinary baseball developments that change Seattle’s title path: injuries to key players, roster call-ups, trades, a strong or weak stretch of form, and whether the team secures a better postseason seed. In October, playoff matchups, pitching availability, and any official elimination result from MLB will matter most because the market resolves No once the Mariners can no longer win the title. Any change in the season schedule, a cancellation, or a delayed end to the MLB year could also affect whether the market resolves to Other.
The current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The most important source of truth is MLB’s official standings, playoff bracket, and World Series results, since the market follows the league’s declared champion. Because the resolution date is set for late October 2026, readers should watch for whether Seattle is still alive in the postseason as that deadline approaches and whether MLB has any schedule changes that affect the season’s end. One ambiguity to keep in mind is the fallback resolution: if there is no winner within the specified timeframe, the outcome is not Yes or No but Other.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $47.4K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
7%
No
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
--
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/6/2026
View market
