Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by August 31, 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by August 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $100.1 in 24h volume, and $4.8K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Aug 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.