Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $3.5K in 24h volume, and $57.6K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$57.6K
This market asks whether the Tampa Bay Rays will finish the 2026 MLB season as World Series champions. It is a straightforward baseball title question with a hard settlement rule tied to the official MLB result, so the key issue is not just how good Tampa Bay looks, but whether the club can survive the full playoff path in a single-elimination postseason bracket.
The resolution hinges on the winner of the 2026 World Series, the championship series that ends Major League Baseball’s season. If the Rays are eliminated from postseason contention at any point, the market is set to resolve “No”; if MLB does not crown a winner by the stated cutoff, the market can resolve to “Other” under the rules. The end date shown is October 31, 2026, so readers should pay attention to the full season calendar, playoff qualification, and any official MLB changes to the season timeline.
The Rays are a plausible but uncertain contender because baseball seasons are long, roster health changes quickly, and even strong regular-season teams can be undone by short postseason series. Tampa Bay’s path depends on making the playoffs, entering with a competitive roster, and then winning a sequence of best-of-seven series against other qualified teams. That combination of a long grind and a high-variance playoff format is what makes this a live market rather than a foregone conclusion.
Price can move with anything that changes Tampa Bay’s title outlook: major injuries, starting pitching depth, lineup changes, trades, or a strong or weak stretch of regular-season play. In baseball markets, playoff positioning matters too, because division standing and wild-card status can affect who the Rays face and whether they get home-field advantages. Once the postseason begins, each playoff series result becomes especially important, since one loss in October can sharply reduce the team’s championship path or end it entirely.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important things to verify are the official MLB season status, the Rays’ playoff qualification, and the eventual World Series champion named by MLB. Because the contract can resolve to “No” once Tampa Bay is eliminated, readers should watch postseason brackets closely rather than only the final championship game. The market also includes a fallback “Other” outcome if the season is cancelled, pushed beyond the deadline, or ends without a declared winner, so the exact MLB schedule and any official rule changes matter for settlement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $3.5K in 24h volume, and $57.6K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
3.6%
No
96.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
0%
7/6/2026
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