Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $171.9 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.