culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$149.7K
Liquidity
$58K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $719.8 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$719.8
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks a very specific counting question: will the world see exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher by June 30, 2026? Because very large earthquakes are rare but not impossible over a six-month window, the outcome depends on how many major quakes the USGS logs before the deadline, not on a single headline event.
The title refers to all earthquakes worldwide that meet or exceed magnitude 7.0 during the market window running from December 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET through June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is tied to the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program significant earthquakes page, which makes the official tally the key reference for deciding whether the final count lands on exactly 11. If a qualifying quake happens near the end of the period but has not yet appeared on the USGS resolution source, the market can remain open until July 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or longer only if the rules require another credible source.
The uncertainty here comes from the fact that large earthquakes are unpredictable in timing and frequency, even though seismologists know they occur around the globe every year. Readers may care because this is a clean, public-data event with an exact cutoff: the market is not asking whether a major quake happens, but whether the full tally ends on one precise number. That means the disagreement is really about the pace of significant seismic activity over a fixed period.
Any new USGS-listed magnitude 7.0+ earthquake during the counting window can change the running total and quickly shift the outlook for an exact-11 result. News of a major quake that is initially reported elsewhere but not yet reflected on the USGS page can also matter, because the market rules give that source priority and allow extra time for late appearance. As the deadline approaches, the remaining number of days becomes especially important: if the count is already close to 11, even one additional qualifying event can make the exact outcome much less likely.
Related markets
-0.2%
24h Vol
$149.7K
Liquidity
$58K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Check the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program significant earthquakes page, since that is the stated resolution source and the market depends on its official count. The main thing to verify is not just whether a large quake occurred, but whether it falls inside the exact time window and whether it is magnitude 7.0 or higher. Readers should also pay attention to the July 7, 2026 extension rule, because a late-appearing quake could affect resolution even after June 30 if it was within the market period but not yet posted on the source page.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $719.8 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
4%
No
96%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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