culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$153.2K
Liquidity
$54.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $184.2 in 24h volume, and $1.5K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$184.2
Liquidity
$1.5K
This market asks a very specific counting question about global seismic activity: will the world see exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher during the market’s measurement window? It is worth watching because the answer depends on a narrow threshold, a fixed calendar period, and the official earthquake record rather than on opinion or interpretation.
The event is defined as the total number of earthquakes anywhere on Earth with magnitude 7.0 or above between December 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves against the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program’s significant earthquakes page, which serves as the source of truth for whether each qualifying quake is counted. The outcome is binary: it will resolve Yes only if the official count lands on exactly 12, and No for any other total.
A count like this can feel straightforward, but it is still uncertain because major earthquakes are irregular in both timing and frequency. The market is effectively pricing whether the rest of the window produces exactly the right number of qualifying events, not merely whether there are “many” or “few” large quakes. That makes the exact total more delicate than a simple above-or-below bet, since 11, 12, or 13 all lead to different outcomes.
Any newly recorded magnitude 7.0+ earthquake during the window can change the running total and quickly alter whether 12 is still reachable. Updates to the USGS significant earthquakes list matter especially if a large quake has occurred but has not yet been posted there, since the market rules allow the listing to catch up before final resolution. Because the threshold is exact, even one additional qualifying event can be the difference between a possible Yes and a definite No.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.2%
24h Vol
$153.2K
Liquidity
$54.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should watch the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program’s significant earthquakes page, since that is the official resolution source named in the market rules. The key details to verify are the magnitude threshold, the start and end timestamps in ET, and whether any earthquake within the window is later added to the USGS record during the possible grace period through July 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The main ambiguity risk is not the geology itself but the timing of reporting and how the final official count is assembled from the source of truth.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $184.2 in 24h volume, and $1.5K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
3.3%
No
96.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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