Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

What this market is about

The title asks whether there will be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30, and the rules define the counting window from December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution comes from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program’s significant earthquakes page, which is the source that will determine how many qualifying quakes occurred in that period. If a substantial quake has happened but has not yet appeared there, the market can stay open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the quake is otherwise reflected on the source.

Why the market exists

The market is pricing uncertainty around how active the planet’s largest earthquakes will be during a fixed stretch of time. Even though magnitude 7.0+ quakes are relatively uncommon, the global total can shift with a single major event, so the difference between eight, nine, or ten matters a lot for the final answer. The exact count also depends on how the USGS catalogs events within the time window, not just on headlines or local reports.

What can move the price

A newly reported magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake anywhere in the world would be the main event that moves this market, especially if it pushes the running total closer to or farther from nine. Large aftershocks only matter if they independently meet the 7.0 threshold and fall within the resolution window. The price can also move when the USGS updates its significant-earthquake list, since the market follows that record rather than informal tallies.

How to read the current probability