finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $217.5 in 24h volume, and $678.6 in liquidity.
Probability
11%
24h Volume
$217.5
Liquidity
$678.6
This market asks whether Threads will be the No. 1 free app in the U.S. Apple App Store at a specific noon snapshot on June 12. It is worth watching because App Store rankings can move quickly with product launches, viral spikes, or coordinated user interest, and the market depends on one exact chart reading rather than a full-day average.
The subject is Threads, Meta’s text-focused social app, and the question is whether it will rank #1 in the United States under Apple’s iPhone App Store "Free Apps" chart on June 12. The resolution source is the U.S. iOS App Store’s Top Charts page, and the market will be settled using the overall free-app ranking shown there at 12:00 PM ET on that date. If Threads is at the top of that chart at that moment, the answer is Yes; otherwise it is No.
This kind of market turns on whether a consumer app can briefly overtake every other free app in the store, which often reflects attention, downloads, and product momentum. Threads has a recognizable brand and a built-in user base through Meta, but the App Store’s top spot can also be won by other major apps, games, or utility downloads, so there is real uncertainty about whether it will lead the chart at the exact resolution time.
Any event that changes download demand for Threads could matter, especially a feature launch, a major app update, or a surge of interest around the app’s social feed and account activity. Competitor activity can also matter if another app suddenly becomes more popular and pushes Threads off the top spot, even briefly around the noon check. Because the market uses a single timestamp, short-lived chart swings close to 12:00 PM ET are especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 11% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketReaders should verify the exact chart Apple shows in the U.S. iPhone App Store under Apps → Top Charts → Free Apps, since that is the stated source of truth. The key details are the country, device category, chart type, and the 12:00 PM ET snapshot on June 12; if any of those are misunderstood, the result could be ambiguous. It is also worth checking whether the app displayed at #1 is actually Threads, because the market resolves from the chart position itself rather than from downloads, revenue, or broader popularity.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $217.5 in 24h volume, and $678.6 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
11.3%
No
88.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 11%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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