
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $96.5 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$96.5
Liquidity
$2.5K
This market asks whether Z.ai will be the company behind the model ranked second on the Chatbot Arena coding leaderboard at the end of June 2026. Z.ai is the brand name used by the company behind a family of general-purpose AI models, and this page is really tracking how that company’s coding model stacks up against rivals on a widely watched public leaderboard.
The outcome is determined by the company that owns the model sitting in second place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard for the "Coding" category at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The rules point to the "Text Arena | Coding" table with style control off, and the resolution uses the Rank column rather than a subjective judgment about which model feels strongest. If two models are tied, the market uses Arena score, then unrounded score details, and finally company name order as a last tiebreaker.
The question is uncertain because coding leaderboards can shift as companies release new models, improve existing ones, or see benchmark performance change after fresh arena evaluations. Readers may care because coding is one of the clearest ways to compare AI models on practical tasks, and second place can still signal which company is close to the top tier even if it is not first. The market is effectively pricing disagreement about whether Z.ai will be near the very top of that ranking on the check date.
Price can move if Z.ai announces or releases a new coding model, especially one aimed at outperforming current leaderboard leaders. It can also move if the Chatbot Arena coding table updates in a way that changes rank order, if another company ships a stronger coding model, or if a tie scenario becomes likely under the market’s tiebreak rules. Because the resolution is based on the leaderboard at a fixed timestamp, late changes close to June 30 matter more than older performance claims.
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+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact company name attached to the model in second place on the Chatbot Arena coding leaderboard at the market’s check time. Readers should pay attention to the specific Coding tab, the style-control setting being off, and the timestamp of June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, since those details control resolution. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns, so the first post-outage check becomes the source of truth under the rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $96.5 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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