Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Katie Boulter vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $111.2 in 24h volume, and $0.5 in liquidity.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$111.2
Liquidity
$0.5
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50%
Change
+11.5%
High
67%
Low
21.5%
Over 2.5 moved from 38.5% to 50% over the last day, trading between 21.5% and 67%.
Over 2.5 price history from Polymarket CLOB.
49 points
This market asks whether Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez will play a three-set match at the HSBC Championships. In tennis, the over/under is really a question about how competitive the match is: a straight-sets win settles Under 2.5, while any match that reaches a third set settles Over 2.5.
The event is the WTA match between Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET at the HSBC Championships. The settlement line is 2.5 total sets, so two completed sets or fewer means Under, and three completed sets or more means Over. The rules also say a super tie-break counts as one set for this market, and official WTA statistics decide the result.
Tennis matches can swing quickly between a routine straight-sets result and a long, even contest, especially when two players have different strengths on grass and in pressure points. That uncertainty is what this market is pricing: whether Boulter or Fernandez can close the match efficiently, or whether the contest is close enough to require a deciding set. The wide bid-ask spread suggests the market is still relatively unsettled, so readers should expect the price to react strongly to lineup confirmation, withdrawals, or any change in the match status.
Any confirmed withdrawal, retirement, or walkover news would matter immediately because the rules treat canceled or unfinished matches differently. If the match starts and one player takes control early, that can push the market toward Under 2.5; if the first two sets are split or tightly contested, Over 2.5 becomes more likely. Since the event is tied to official WTA scoring, the exact format used on court matters too, especially if a super tie-break is introduced.
The current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check whether the match is actually played on the scheduled date, since a cancellation before play begins or a delay beyond seven days without a result resolves 50-50. If the match begins, the key question is whether it finishes in straight sets or reaches a third set, with a super tie-break counting as one set under these rules. Because resolution depends on official WTA statistics, the safest source of truth is the completed match record and not informal score updates.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Katie Boulter vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $111.2 in 24h volume, and $0.5 in liquidity.
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Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA statistics.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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