Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $402K in 24h volume, and $38.4K in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$402K
Liquidity
$38.4K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
29.5%
Change
-18%
High
54.5%
Low
27.5%
Katie Boulter moved from 47.5% to 29.5% over the last day, trading between 27.5% and 54.5%.
Katie Boulter price history from Polymarket CLOB.
49 points
This market asks which player will advance from the HSBC Championships meeting between Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez. Because tennis matches resolve on the court rather than by forecast, the key issue is simply whether the scheduled women’s singles match is played to a finish, or whether an edge case like a retirement or walkover triggers the market’s special rules.
The event is the WTA Tour match listed for June 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET at the HSBC Championships, with Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez as the two named players. Under the market rules, it resolves to the player who advances if the match is completed normally, or if one player advances after the match begins because the other retires, defaults, or is disqualified. If the match is canceled, never played, tied, or delayed more than seven days past the scheduled date without a winner, the market resolves 50-50; a pre-match walkover also resolves 50-50.
The uncertainty here is not about a long tournament outcome in the abstract, but about one specific head-to-head match and the various ways tennis can end. Boulter and Fernandez are both established tour-level players, so the question is who gets through this round and how official event rules handle any interruption. Readers care because tennis settlements can turn on details like whether a player actually stepped on court, whether the match was completed, and whether retirement or withdrawal happened before or after play began.
The biggest price moves would come from official lineup and match-status information: confirmation that the match is starting on time, a retirement, a medical timeout that leads to withdrawal, or a completed result. Any pre-match change such as a walkover, late scratch, or schedule change could matter as much as the score itself because the market has specific 50-50 rules for certain non-played outcomes. If the match is delayed, the market will also react to whether it remains within the seven-day settlement window and whether the WTA posts an official result.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the WTA Tour’s official match information and result reporting, since the market says that will be used first. Before resolution, check whether the match actually started, whether it was completed, and whether any retirement, default, disqualification, or walkover occurred, because each scenario is treated differently. Also watch the scheduled date versus the seven-day delay rule: if there is no winner determined within that window, the market does not pick a player and instead settles 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $402K in 24h volume, and $38.4K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Katie Boulter
30%
Leylah Fernandez
70%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Boulter' if Katie Boulter advances against Leylah Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Katie Boulter. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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