Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 59%, $31K in 24h volume, and $46.9K in liquidity.
Probability
59%
24h Volume
$31K
Liquidity
$46.9K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
58.5%
Change
-0.5%
High
59%
Low
58.5%
Andreeva moved from 59% to 58.5% over the last hour, trading between 58.5% and 59%.
Andreeva price history from Polymarket CLOB.
13 points
This market is about a set handicap in a Roland Garros women’s singles match between Mirra Andreeva and Maja Chwalinska. Because the settlement depends on the final completed score, even a match that looks straightforward on paper can land differently if it goes the distance or is interrupted.
The question here is not simply who wins the match, but whether Andreeva wins by at least two sets more than Chwalinska under the market’s set handicap rule. The event is the WTA match at Roland Garros, originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, and the official Grand Slam result is the source of truth for settlement. If the match starts but does not finish, or if it is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond seven days without a result, the market resolves 50-50 instead of to either side.
A set handicap creates more uncertainty than a straight winner market because it depends on the shape of the result, not just the final name on the scoreline. Tennis can swing quickly with injuries, retirements, or one-sided sets, and those possibilities matter especially in a Grand Slam setting where official completed-score rules decide the outcome. Readers who follow this market are really watching whether Andreeva can win cleanly enough to clear the handicap rather than merely survive the match.
The biggest price moves will usually come from anything that changes expectations about how many sets the match might take: lineup and draw context, pre-match injury or fitness concerns, and whether either player is expected to push the other into longer rallies or a deciding set. Once play starts, the live score, set count, and any signs of retirement or a match suspension matter even more, because the settlement rule treats an incomplete match very differently from a completed one. On a clay-court stage like Roland Garros, surface familiarity and match length can also shape whether the favorite clears a set handicap comfortably or only narrowly.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 59% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market settles, readers should check the official Roland Garros WTA result rather than headlines, box scores, or partial live updates. The key details are whether the match is completed, whether the final score is official, and whether any interruption or postponement pushes the result into the market’s 50-50 fallback rules. The deadline in the market metadata is June 13, 2026 at 1:00 UTC, so if there is no completed result by then, the resolution terms for cancellation or delay become important.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 59%, $31K in 24h volume, and $46.9K in liquidity.
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Andreeva
58.5%
Chwalinska
41.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mirra Andreeva and Maja Chwalinska in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Andreeva" if Mirra Andreeva wins by 2 or more sets than Maja Chwalinska, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Chwalinska." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 59%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
0%
7/6/2026
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