Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Dart vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 21.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $77.2 in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$77.2
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
100%
Change
+54.5%
High
100%
Low
25.5%
Over moved from 45.5% to 100% over the last day, trading between 25.5% and 100%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
44 points
This market is about whether Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova play a long enough match at the HSBC Championships to clear 21.5 total games. Because tennis totals are driven by set scorelines, even a straightforward straight-sets win can land either side depending on how close each set is. The market is also unusually sensitive to whether the match is completed at all, because an unfinished match resolves 50-50 under the rules.
The event is the women’s singles match between Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova at the HSBC Championships, listed for June 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The settlement line is 21.5 total games: the market resolves to Over if the completed match contains 22 games or more across all sets, and Under if it finishes on 21 or fewer. Any tiebreak, including a Champions Super Tiebreak, counts as one game toward the total, and official WTA statistics are the source of truth.
A tennis total like 21.5 sits right on the boundary between a routine straight-sets match and a longer, tighter contest. Dart and Samsonova are the named players, so the key uncertainty is not just who wins, but whether one player dominates quickly or the sets stay close enough to push the total higher. The market is also pricing in the possibility that the match never completes, since that would not produce an Over or Under result at all.
The biggest drivers are the match score and any signs that one player is serving strongly, creating breaks, or forcing tiebreaks. A quick first set can push expectations toward Under, while a close set, a split-set result, or any tiebreak situation makes Over more likely because each set can add games quickly. News or official updates about scheduling changes, retirement risk, walkovers, or a delay that threatens completion can matter a lot here because the rules treat unfinished or excessively delayed matches as 50-50.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Check the official WTA match result, because settlement depends on the completed game count and on whether the match was officially finished. The most important rule details are the 22-game threshold, the special treatment of tiebreaks as one game, and the fallback 50-50 settlement if play starts but does not finish, or if the match is canceled before play or delayed beyond seven days without a result. The page’s end date is June 15, 2026, so readers should verify the final official score and any tournament postponement or retirement notes before assuming the market will settle normally.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Dart vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 21.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $77.2 in 24h volume.
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Over
100%
Under
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA statistics.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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