Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Dart vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 23.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $40 in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
100%
Change
+64%
High
100%
Low
35%
Over moved from 36% to 100% over the last day, trading between 35% and 100%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
44 points
This market asks whether Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova will play a long enough tennis match at the HSBC Championships to reach at least 24 total games. Because the line is set at 23.5 games, even a straight-sets match can cash the Over if both sets are competitive enough, while a short match or one-sided result points the other way. The live market setup is currently tilted very strongly toward Over, which suggests traders expect a match with enough length to clear the number.
The event is the WTA match between Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova at the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The settlement rule is simple: count every completed game across all sets, and resolve to Over if the match reaches 24 games or more; otherwise it resolves to Under. Tiebreaks, including any Champions or super tiebreak, count as one game for this total, and official WTA statistics are the source of truth.
Tennis totals like this are uncertain because the final game count depends on who serves well, how close each set is, and whether the match goes to a third set or a tiebreak-heavy finish. Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova are the named players because their matchup at this tournament creates a specific length question, not just a winner question. The market is effectively pricing disagreement over whether Samsonova’s match style, Dart’s resistance, or a close set score will push the total over the posted line.
Any lineup, fitness, or withdrawal news involving either player can move this market quickly, because a late change can alter whether the match even starts or how competitive it looks. If the match begins and one player takes control early, the Under becomes more plausible; if the sets stay tight or go to a third set, the Over gains support. A tiebreak-heavy scoreline, a long first set, or any sign of a suspended or incomplete match also matters here because the rules treat incomplete matches and certain delays differently.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this settles, check whether the match is actually played, whether it finishes, and what the official WTA scoreline shows. The main ambiguity points are the special settlement rules: if the match starts but does not finish, or if it is canceled before play or delayed more than seven days without a result, the market resolves 50-50 rather than to either side. Readers should also verify the official tournament order of play and final WTA match statistics, since those determine the game count used for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Dart vs. Samsonova: Match O/U 23.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $40 in 24h volume.
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Over
100%
Under
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Harriet Dart and Liudmila Samsonova in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA statistics.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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