
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $908.7 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$908.7
Liquidity
$2.7K
This market asks whether the Bank of England will raise the Bank Rate by 50 basis points or more after its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. It is a focused test of how aggressively the BoE may move at a scheduled policy meeting, with resolution tied to the official statement released on the meeting date.
The event is the Bank of England’s July 2026 MPC decision, scheduled for July 30, 2026. The market resolves based on the change in the Bank Rate from the level before that meeting, using the Bank of England’s own statement or release as the source of truth. If the rate is expressed with upper and lower bounds, the rule says to use the change in the upper bound, and any non-standard move is rounded under the market’s stated bps rules.
Readers are looking at whether the BoE will deliver a larger-than-usual rate increase, which is the kind of policy step that can signal concern about inflation, growth, or broader financial conditions. The disagreement is not just about whether rates move at all, but about the size of the move and whether officials choose a smaller adjustment instead of a 50 bps-plus hike. Because central bank decisions are published on a fixed calendar, the uncertainty is concentrated in a single announcement rather than spread over time.
The price can move when traders reassess the likely size of the July MPC decision, especially if expectations shift toward a standard move, a pause, or a larger half-point-or-more increase. Any clues from the Bank of England’s communications, especially language around inflation, labor market slack, or the policy outlook, could matter because the market resolves strictly off the official rate decision. The contract can also react as the meeting date gets closer and participants reprice how likely a 50 bps or larger increase looks under the BoE’s own framework.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key item to watch is the official Bank of England MPC release on July 30, 2026, because that is the document the market uses to determine the change in Bank Rate. Readers should verify the exact before-and-after level of the rate, since the contract depends on the difference relative to the prior meeting and uses the rule set for rounding if the rate lands between the displayed choices. The main ambiguity risk is not the calendar date but the precise way the Bank Rate is stated in the release, especially if the BoE uses a structure with bounds or an unconventional increment.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $908.7 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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