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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $384.7K in 24h volume, and $435.8K in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$384.7K
Liquidity
$435.8K
This market asks whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to a 7-day average of at least 60 ship arrivals by the end of June 2026, using IMF Portwatch’s own count as the deciding source. It is worth watching because the strait is one of the world’s most important oil and shipping chokepoints, so even a short-lived disruption can affect regional trade flows and tanker movement.
The title refers to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that handles a large share of global maritime energy traffic. For this market, the key question is not whether traffic looks “normal” in a general sense, but whether IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” at 60 or higher on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026. The market only counts the ship types listed in the rules—container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels—and it resolves from Portwatch’s published data, not from headlines or outside estimates.
There is uncertainty around how quickly traffic in the Strait of Hormuz can rebound to a benchmark that the market treats as normal enough to clear the threshold. That uncertainty can come from regional security conditions, shipping rerouting, operational disruptions, or gradual recovery in vessel flows, all of which can change the Portwatch average in either direction. The market is effectively pricing the chance that published transit activity reaches that 60-ship benchmark before the June deadline.
Any new IMF Portwatch update showing the 7-day moving average approaching or crossing 60 would be the clearest event-specific reason for the market to move toward Yes. By contrast, a stretch of lower daily arrivals, a weak trailing average, or continued rerouting away from the strait would pressure the market toward No. Because the rules allow resolution as soon as the threshold is published, a single qualifying data point can matter a lot if it appears before June 30, 2026.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch IMF Portwatch’s published “Arrivals of Ships” series for the Strait of Hormuz and check the 7-day moving average, not just the daily count. The source of truth is the Portwatch publication itself, and the market also spells out that revisions within the timeframe can count, while later revisions after June 30, 2026 will not. It is also important to note the 14-day post-deadline window and the data-integrity exception, since the market can remain open briefly if there is an obvious error or if the final date’s data has not yet been published.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $384.7K in 24h volume, and $435.8K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
17.5%
No
82.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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