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Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?
24h Vol
$41.3K
Liquidity
$7.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Critical Discord Incident by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$2K
This market asks whether Discord will post at least one official incident labeled Critical, shown in red, before June 30 at 11:59 PM ET. Discord is a widely used messaging platform for gaming communities, esports teams, creators, and private servers, so a severe status-page incident can have broad visibility and real disruption. The key question is not whether Discord has any issue at all, but whether the company classifies an incident at its highest severity level during the market window.
The outcome depends on Discord’s own incident-status language, with the main source listed as discordstatus.com and its history page. A Critical incident is specifically different from a Major incident, so only the red classification counts for a Yes result. If Discord publishes a qualifying Critical classification before the deadline, the market resolves Yes; if not, it resolves No.
Discord occasionally experiences outages or service problems, and not every disruption is severe enough to be marked Critical. Readers may care because Discord is deeply tied to live community coordination, esports communication, and creator operations, so even a short major incident can matter—but only the red-classified events count here. The market is pricing disagreement about whether Discord will have one of those top-severity incidents before the cutoff date.
Any new Discord status-page incident, especially one that is first labeled Critical, would be the most direct event to move this market. A serious outage that stays in Major orange instead of Critical red would matter less for resolution, though it can still shape expectations if Discord later upgrades the classification within the market window. Because the rules count the first official classification published, changes made after the initial Critical label do not undo a Yes result.
Related markets

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24h Vol
$41.3K
Liquidity
$7.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before June 30 at 11:59 PM ET, the most important thing to check is Discord’s official incident history and whether any new incident receives a Critical red label during the window. If an incident is still ongoing near the deadline, the market may remain open until Discord publishes its first official impact classification, so the timing of the status update matters as much as the underlying outage. Readers should also verify that they are looking at Discord’s own classification, since the market rules prioritize official information and only allow consensus reporting as a backup.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Critical Discord Incident by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
12.5%
No
87.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical. Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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