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Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?
24h Vol
$41.3K
Liquidity
$7.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $9.8K in 24h volume.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$9.8K
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
57%
Change
+25%
High
57%
Low
32%
Astralis moved from 32% to 57% over the full available history, trading between 32% and 57%.
Astralis price history from Polymarket CLOB.
3 points
This market is about the Round 4 Counter-Strike match between Astralis and paiN at the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2. Because the outcome is tied to a map handicap rather than just the match winner, the key question is not only who wins, but by how wide the final map score ends up.
The contract resolves to Astralis if Astralis wins the match by at least two maps, which in practice means a strong map differential in a multi-map series. It resolves to paiN if that margin is smaller, if paiN wins outright, or if the match does not produce the required handicap result for Astralis. The market description says the match was initially scheduled for June 8 at 8:00AM ET, and the official resolution source is HLTV, with a fallback to credible reporting if HLTV has not posted final results within two hours after the event ends.
Astralis and paiN are established Counter-Strike teams, and a Major-stage match can swing on series length, veto outcomes, and how well each roster adapts on the day. A handicap market adds another layer of uncertainty because a close 2-1 type result is very different from a sweep, even if the same team wins the match. Readers following this page are essentially watching whether Astralis can win with enough map cushion to clear the -1.5 handicap.
Anything that changes the expected map count can move this market: the announced map veto, any roster or stand-in information, and signs that one team is especially strong or weak on the likely maps. For Counter-Strike, patch changes, tournament pressure, and form on particular maps can matter a lot because a team that is favored overall may still fail to cover a two-map handicap if the series goes long. If the match format, start time, or participating roster changes, that can also affect how this handicap is priced.
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24h Vol
$41.3K
Liquidity
$7.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, check that the match is actually played, that the correct teams are listed, and that the final series result on HLTV matches the handicap rule exactly. The important ambiguity points are the special cases in the rules: a cancelled match, a tie, a delay of more than seven days without a winner, or an incomplete match can force a 50-50 resolution. Also note that forfeits, disqualifications, and walkovers count only when the match is completed, and if the clinching map is forfeited, the match still counts as completed under these rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $9.8K in 24h volume.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Astralis
0%
paiN
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Astralis and paiN in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 8 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis wins 2 or more maps than paiN in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "paiN". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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