culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $10K in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$10K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will make fewer than 40 counted posts on X during a very short window from June 6 to June 8, 2026. Because Musk is one of the platform’s most watched accounts, even a small change in posting cadence can matter here, especially over a roughly 48-hour period.
The question is straightforward: will @elonmusk’s total count of qualifying X posts stay below 40 between June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and June 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET? The market counts main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while ordinary replies do not count unless they appear as reply-style posts on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Resolution comes from the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself serving as the fallback source if the tracker does not update correctly.
This market is interesting because Elon Musk’s posting habits can be highly variable: some stretches are quiet, while others include frequent posts, reposts, and quote posts that quickly add up. The specific disagreement is not about whether he uses X, but about whether his activity over this exact weekend will cross a fairly low threshold of 40 counted posts.
The main things that can move this market are Musk’s posting pace and the mix of post types that count under the rules. A burst of reposts, quote posts, or main-feed posts during the window would push the total toward the cutoff, while a relatively quiet stretch would make the under-40 outcome more likely. Deletions can matter too if a post stays up long enough to be captured by the tracker, since deleted posts still count under the stated rule.
The current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should watch the tracker’s Post Counter for the exact count, not just Musk’s visible timeline, because the market uses a specific counting method. The resolution window ends at 12:00 PM ET on June 8, 2026, so posts made after that point should not count even if they appear shortly afterward. The most important ambiguity to verify is how the tracker classifies replies, reposts, and any posts that are later deleted, since those edge cases are spelled out in the market rules and could affect the final tally.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $10K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
13.5%
No
86.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 6 12:00 PM ET to June 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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