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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$50.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, $143.4 in 24h volume, and $9.4K in liquidity.
Probability
46%
24h Volume
$143.4
Liquidity
$9.4K
This market asks whether Ethereal’s token will be valued above $50 million in fully diluted terms one day after launch. The focus is not just on whether a token appears, but on what the market price and total supply imply at a fixed checkpoint the following afternoon.
The event centers on Ethereal, identified here by its X account @etherealdex, and whether its governance token is publicly transferable and tradable by the market’s definition of a launch. Resolution hinges on the token’s fully diluted valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, using total supply multiplied by the token price and the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal has not launched a token by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
The uncertainty comes from two moving parts: whether Ethereal launches a token at all, and how the market prices it immediately afterward. A new token can trade very differently in its first day depending on supply, initial demand, listings, and liquidity, so the same project can clear or miss a $50 million FDV threshold quickly. Readers are watching the market’s judgment about how large Ethereal’s token debut could be, not just whether the token exists.
The biggest price moves would come from a confirmed launch announcement, details about token supply, and any indication of where the token will trade. Because the rule uses FDV one day after launch, early trading levels matter a lot: a strong opening price can push the market toward Yes, while a weak or thinly traded debut can keep it below the threshold. Any clarification from Ethereal about timing, transferability, or distribution terms could also change expectations before the 4:00 PM ET checkpoint.
The current market price implies roughly a 46% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$50.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, the key thing to verify is whether Ethereal’s token has been made actively transferable and tradable, since the rules say that is required for a launch. The relevant value is not a headline market cap but the token’s FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, calculated from total supply times price, using the most liquid price source available. If there is any ambiguity about launch timing, exchange access, or supply, those details matter because they can change both the resolution date and the valuation used at settlement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, $143.4 in 24h volume, and $9.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
46%
No
54%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 46%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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