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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$50.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $600M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $39.9 in 24h volume, and $592.9 in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$39.9
Liquidity
$592.9
This market asks whether Ethereal’s governance token will be valued above a $600 million fully diluted valuation one day after launch. It is tied to the public launch of a token from Ethereal, whose X account is listed as the reference point for the project, and the result depends on what the token is worth at a specific time after it first becomes actively tradable.
The question is simple: if Ethereal launches a governance token, will the token’s FDV be higher than $600 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch? The market only resolves after the token is publicly transferable and tradable, and if no token launches by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is automatically No. FDV is defined here as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
This market captures uncertainty around how the market will value a new token very early in its life, when supply, distribution, and trading demand can move sharply. The $600 million threshold is high enough that traders are effectively judging whether Ethereal’s launch will attract substantial interest right away, not just whether it will exist. Readers care because launch-day pricing often reflects expectations about product appeal, community demand, and token design before a longer trading history exists.
The biggest price moves would come from concrete launch details: whether Ethereal announces a token at all, when trading begins, what the circulating or total supply looks like, and how major venues or liquidity pools handle the first day of trading. A public announcement that changes the launch timeline, token distribution, or eligibility rules could matter a lot, because this market resolves off the token’s price at a fixed time one day after launch. Any sign that the token is drawing unusually strong or weak early demand could also shift expectations around whether the FDV clears $600 million.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$50.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the actual launch timestamp, whether the token is actively transferable and tradable, and the exact price source that is being used as the most liquid market. Because the resolution point is 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, the timing matters as much as the price itself. If Ethereal never launches a token by the stated deadline, the market resolves No regardless of any earlier speculation, so readers should watch for an official public launch rather than informal hints or rumors.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $600M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $39.9 in 24h volume, and $592.9 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
10%
No
90%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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