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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52.8K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $800M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $599.8 in 24h volume, and $682.1 in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$599.8
Liquidity
$682.1
This market asks whether Ethereal’s governance token will trade at a fully diluted valuation above $800 million one day after launch. Ethereal is tied to the public account @etherealdex, so the key question is not just whether a token appears, but whether it becomes actively transferable and priced high enough soon after debut.
The event resolves by checking Ethereal’s governance token 1 day after launch, defined here as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token first launches. For this market, a launch only counts once the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and the result is based on FDV calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. If Ethereal has not launched a token by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
The uncertainty comes from two separate unknowns: whether Ethereal will launch a token at all, and if it does, what price the market will assign to it in the first day of trading. A fresh token can list with very different valuations depending on supply, demand, liquidity, and how the market interprets the project’s prospects, so the $800 million line is a concrete threshold that traders may view as meaningfully high or easy to miss.
Any official announcement from Ethereal about a governance token, its launch mechanics, or the total supply can change expectations quickly. On launch day itself, the token’s first liquid trading price, whether it has real venue support, and how much circulating access is available will directly affect the FDV calculation used for resolution. Because the market uses the most liquid price source available, disputes over where the token trades best or what price is most representative could also matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52.8K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe most important things to verify are whether Ethereal has actually launched a publicly transferable token, what the launch time was, and what the total supply is at resolution time. Readers should also check the exact 4:00 PM ET cutoff on the day after launch, since the market does not resolve based on an intraday high or a later price. If Ethereal never launches by the stated deadline, the market is automatically No, so the presence or absence of a real launch is the first issue to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ethereal FDV above $800M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $599.8 in 24h volume, and $682.1 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
10.1%
No
89.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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