culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $1.8K in 24h volume, and $51.4K in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$51.4K
This market asks whether Extended’s token, if it launches, will be priced at a fully diluted valuation above $500 million one day later. It is a watch on both the project’s launch timing and the market’s early view of the token’s size once all supply is counted.
The event is tied to Extended, identified here by its X account, and specifically to the first day after its token becomes publicly transferable and tradable. The resolution threshold is simple: at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, the token’s FDV must be above $500 million for a Yes. If Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
The uncertainty here is not just whether a token will launch, but how the market will price that token immediately after launch once the full supply is known. FDV can move quickly in the first day because it depends on both price and total supply, so early enthusiasm, limited float, or a cautious debut can all matter. Readers following this market are really watching whether Extended’s first trading day supports a valuation above the stated line.
The biggest price drivers are the actual launch announcement, whether the token becomes actively tradable on schedule, and the first liquid market price after trading opens. A launch with strong initial demand could push the FDV above the threshold, while a weak debut, delayed launch, or low trading price would point the other way. Because the rule uses the most liquid available price source, where the token trades and how actively it trades can also matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.4K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketBefore resolution, verify whether Extended has launched a token that is publicly transferable and tradable, since the market only counts that as a launch. The key measurement time is 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, and the source of truth is the most liquid price source available rather than a single official quote. The main ambiguity to watch for is supply math: the market uses total token supply multiplied by token price, so readers should pay attention to whether the token’s supply terms are clear and whether trading is live by the rule’s deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $1.8K in 24h volume, and $51.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
28%
No
72%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$59.5K
Liquidity
$41.5K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View market-10.4%
24h Vol
$197.6K
Liquidity
$19.3K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$280.4K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
+11.7%
24h Vol
$44.1K
Liquidity
$13K
Spread
4%
6/8/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$22.1K
Liquidity
$136.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market