Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

What this market is about

The event here is a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, measured by whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is reduced between December 16, 2025 and the end of the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9. If the Fed cuts rates at any scheduled meeting in that window, or makes an emergency cut, the market resolves “Yes.” If no qualifying cut happens by the stated cutoff, including the fallback date of January 7, 2027 if the December meeting is not held, it resolves “No.”

Why the market exists

This market is really about the path of U.S. monetary policy over the next year and a half. Traders and readers are weighing whether inflation, growth, and labor-market conditions will give the Fed room to ease policy before the December 2026 meeting, or whether rates will stay unchanged for longer. The disagreement is not over what the Fed can do, but over when it will decide that a cut is warranted.

What can move the price

The price can move when the Fed changes its policy statement, releases new projections, or delivers a rate decision at any scheduled FOMC meeting. It can also move when inflation, jobs, or growth data change expectations for the Fed’s next step, since those reports shape whether a cut looks more or less likely before the deadline. An emergency meeting or any official announcement that lowers the target range would be the clearest event-specific catalyst.

How to read the current probability