
+16.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
24h Vol
$281.5K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Malawi (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $27.7 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$27.7
Liquidity
$1.4K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
4%
Change
-3%
High
49%
Low
4%
Malawi moved from 7% to 4% over the last month, trading between 4% and 49%.
Malawi price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market is about a specific goal-margin in the Malawi vs. Ethiopia FIFA International Friendly on June 6. Because the line is Malawi (-2.5), the question is not simply who wins, but whether Malawi wins by three goals or more within normal match time.
The market resolves to Malawi if Malawi beat Ethiopia by at least three goals in the official final score from the match, which is scheduled for June 6 at 11:00 AM ET. If Malawi do not win by that margin, including any Ethiopia win or any Malawi win by one or two goals, the market resolves to Ethiopia. The description says the result is based on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time or penalties.
This kind of spread market exists because a team can win a match without covering a large handicap, and the exact margin matters for settlement. Malawi and Ethiopia are both national teams, so the uncertainty is not just about the winner but about how one-sided the game will be in a friendly setting, where lineups and motivation can vary. Readers following this market are really watching whether Malawi can produce an unusually big victory rather than simply whether they can avoid defeat.
The most direct price mover is any information that changes expectations for the margin: confirmed lineups, late squad changes, or news that one side is fielding a much stronger or weaker side than expected. During the match, an early Malawi lead, multiple goals, or a red card could quickly shift the odds of a 3+ goal win, while a close first half would usually make the -2.5 cover look less likely. Because the market is tied to a friendly, the perceived competitiveness of the match matters a lot when comparing a narrow Malawi win to a blowout.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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View marketBefore this settles, readers should check the official final score published by FIFA, since the market says that is the primary source of truth. The match has to be completed for the result to resolve normally; if it is postponed, the market stays open until it is played, and if it is canceled with no make-up game, it resolves 50–50. One important detail is the resolution frame: only regular time plus stoppage time counts, so extra time or penalties would not change the outcome for this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Malawi (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $27.7 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
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Malawi
4%
Ethiopia
96%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 11:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Malawi" if Malawi win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ethiopia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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