
+16.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
24h Vol
$281.5K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Ethiopia (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $30.5 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$30.5
Liquidity
$1.3K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
5%
Change
-19%
High
50.5%
Low
5%
Ethiopia moved from 24% to 5% over the full available history, trading between 5% and 50.5%.
Ethiopia price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market is about the margin of victory in a FIFA International Friendlies match between Ethiopia and Malawi on June 6 at 11:00 AM ET. The key question is not just who wins, but whether Ethiopia wins by at least three goals, which would make the Ethiopia side of the spread pay out.
The title, "Spread: Ethiopia (-2.5)," means Ethiopia must win by 3 or more goals for the market to resolve to Ethiopia. If Ethiopia win by one or two goals, draw, or lose, the market resolves to Malawi under the posted rules. The match is scheduled for June 6, and the market says it will resolve from the official final score published on fifa.com, using only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
A handicap spread like -2.5 creates a much sharper question than a simple win-or-lose market: it asks whether one team can win convincingly enough to clear a large margin. In a friendly, lineups, substitutions, and match context can matter a lot, which is why a result like this can be more uncertain than a straight match winner market. Readers watching this page are really tracking whether Ethiopia can produce an unusually strong performance relative to Malawi rather than merely avoid defeat.
Any confirmed change to the match schedule, venue, or team availability could matter because this market is tied to a specific 90-minute result on a specific date. On the field, an early Ethiopia lead, a red card, or a game state that suggests a wide-margin win would support the Ethiopia side, while a tight first half would make a three-goal margin look harder to reach. Because the market resolves only on the official final score, late goals in stoppage time still count if they are part of the match’s published result.
The current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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7/1/2026
View marketCheck that the match is actually played on June 6 and that the official final score is posted by FIFA or the event organizers, since that is the stated source of truth. If the match is postponed, the market stays open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no makeup game, the market resolves 50–50. One small ambiguity to watch is that the rule excludes extra time or penalties and uses only regular play plus stoppage time, so the final score for settlement may differ from what casual viewers assume if the fixture format changes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Ethiopia (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $30.5 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
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Ethiopia
5%
Malawi
95%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 11:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Ethiopia" if Ethiopia win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Malawi". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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