
+9.3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$146.6K
Liquidity
$134.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $18.4K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$18.4K
This market asks whether the official CME settlement price for the active Gold futures contract will land in the $5,000 to $5,400 range at the end of June 2026. Gold futures are watched closely because they reflect the market’s benchmark price for bullion, and the June expiration frame makes the final settlement day the key moment.
Resolution depends on the CME Group official settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures on the final trading day of June 2026. The contract months that matter for GC are the exchange’s delivery-cycle months — February, April, June, August, October, and December — and the Active Month is the nearest eligible month that is not the spot month. If the settlement falls exactly on a bracket line, this market resolves to the higher bracket, and only CME’s published official settlement counts.
There is real uncertainty over where gold will settle by the end of June 2026, especially because futures pricing can move with changes in rates, inflation expectations, currency strength, and broader market risk sentiment. The market is pricing a simple threshold question: will the CME’s official June settlement for the active GC contract end up inside this unusually high price band, or stay outside it?
The most direct drivers are changes in gold futures prices leading into the June final trading day, since the outcome depends on the official CME settlement rather than an intraday quote. A sharp move in bullion prices, a change in the active contract month around First Position Date, or a shift in the final settlement method for that session could all affect whether the contract closes inside the $5,000-$5,400 range. Because the market uses the published settlement only, the last day’s official CME print matters more than any earlier trading range.
Related markets

+9.3%
24h Vol
$146.6K
Liquidity
$134.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, check which contract month CME lists as the Active Month on the relevant June trading day and confirm the final trading date for the month. The source of truth is CME’s official settlement publication for that session; intraday prices, last trades, and indicative quotes do not count. If June has a shortened final session or no settlement is published that day, the market rules say to use the most recent published Active Month settlement from June instead.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $18.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
3.5%
No
96.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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